Strengthening resilience to climate shocks in the East African drylands: Dr Gary Watmough leading UKRI funded project to co-design early warning systems with pastoralist communities

East Africa’s drylands are being severely affected by more frequent droughts and floods. Co-designed with pastoralists, a new UKRI funded project "Not Just Another App - Human centred design for impact-based forecasts in East Africa" led by Dr Gary Watmough in the School of GeoSciences, in collaboration with researchers in Global Agriculture and Food Systems as well as CIAT and the University of Nairobi will deliver a bottom-up early-warning service with clear, timely and actionable guidance to protect the livelihoods of pastoralist communities.

Image of pastoralist herding cattle in East African Drylands

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. In the East African drylands - covering around 2 million km² - droughts and floods are the main stressors affecting agro-ecosystems, the systems of crops, livestock, land, water and people that underpin food production and rural livelihoods.

These drylands make up around 90% of Kenya, 75% of Tanzania and 67% of Ethiopia, and are home to roughly 40% of their populations. Livestock is central to these economies, contributing about 26% of agricultural GDP[1] and providing a primary source of income for many.

Much of this land is managed by pastoralist communities, who rely on extensive grazing of rain-fed rangelands as their main source of income and identity. This climate-dependent way of life makes them especially vulnerable to environmental change.

As a result, extreme weather is increasing both acute and chronic food and nutrition insecurity, driving livestock losses, malnutrition and long-term poverty across the region.

Climate warning systems

While several early warning systems are in place to provide forecasts for the drylands of East Africa, research and stakeholder engagements funded by, among others, the Jameel Observatory has found that the use of these services is limited among the pastoralist communities.

Increasing evidence indicates that there is a mismatch between pastoralists’ communications needs and the design and content of existing early warning systems, constraining both their use and the value that can be realised from them.

Image of livestock in East African Drylands

Delivering impact: How this project will make a difference

Most existing early warning systems are built top-down, prioritising the needs of government and non-government decision-makers, rather than the communities most affected.

This project will bring together an interdisciplinary team of scientists and pastoralists to co-design a bottom-up weather information service. Using human-centred design, the project team will anchor innovation in the realities of pastoralist communities and deliver clear, timely, and actionable information to those who depend on it.

By partnering with local communities and co-producing solutions, pastoralist priorities will be kept at the heart of climate services.

Enhancing the usability and relevance of early warning systems will enable communities to better prepare for droughts and floods, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerabilities linked to weather shocks.

[1] Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations: https://www.fao.org/in-action/enteric-methane/countries/east-africa, accessed March 2026

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