Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century

New research led by researchers in the School of GeoSciences suggests that extending climate model simulations further into the past could significantly improve how we interpret long-term temperature change.

Climate research has traditionally focused on the rapid warming observed since the late 19th century. As a result, most climate model simulations begin around 1850, with the first few decades used as a benchmark for ‘pre-industrial’ conditions. However, this approach may overlook important earlier influences on the climate system.

The new study investigates what happens when simulations are extended back to 1750. The findings highlight the significant role of early 19th-century volcanic eruptions, including the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, which triggered global cooling and led to 1816 being known as the “Year Without a Summer”.

By capturing these major events, longer simulations more accurately reflect recent temperature changes. The research shows that including this extended historical period provides deeper insight into the drivers of climate variability and change. The findings also show strong agreement between climate model simulated change and new observations, increasing confidence in how well climate variability is understood and the reliability of climate models.

By highlighting the large variability due to volcanic eruptions, which is shown to still have an influence on climate many decades later, the study also raises important questions about how ‘pre-industrial’ climate conditions are defined. Looking further back offers a more robust baseline for assessing long-term climate change.

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