Our research detecting the human fingerprint in observed climate change and extremes helped underpin the UN Paris Agreement on climate change and resulting policies worldwide. Image The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing climate change. Every five to seven years, the IPCC produces Assessment Reports. These are the most comprehensive scientific reports about climate change produced worldwide. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was released in instalments through three Working Groups throughout 2013 and 2014. Thirty of our researchers made significant contributions to AR5. The report provided the scientific foundation for the Paris Agreement and is guiding policies around the world. In addition, IPCC exclusively selected several of our researchers as Lead Authors, Contributing Authors and Review Editors due to their world-leading expertise. You can find out key information by clicking on each heading below: Pioneering climate science Image Professor Gabi Hegerl's seminal work has pioneered the method to detect the 'human fingerprint' in anthropogenic climate change through combining observations and climate model simulations. Her method has become one of the central pillars of climate science. Since then, our researchers have played a significant role in determining critical relationships between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming. We made crucial contributions to estimating the 'human fingerprint' in the climate system from observed change. This also included methods for estimating climate sensitivity, which is how much greenhouse gas emissions warm the climate. We achieved this through world-leading analysis synthesising multiple sources of evidence, including: observed warming in the pre-and post-industrial period paleoclimate instrumental records physical understanding derived from worldwide modelling approaches. This led to the quantification of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) – a key climate metric showing how how much greenhouse gas emissions warm the climate. Our work was used as evidence in the IPCC Fifth Assessment (AR5) reports which underpinned the Paris Agreement. The IPCC exclusively selected Professor Hegerl for the Core Author Team of the AR5 Synthesis Report, the overarching and top-level document of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. She also led the section on observed emissions and changes in the climate in the report. In addition, Professor Hegerl led the Guidance Paper on the attribution of observed climate change and impacts to causes for use across the IPCC's working groups. It was widely used and cited in the overarching IPCC 5th Assessment Report and is still used today, including the latest Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). At the Approval Plenary for the report involving all the United Nations country delegations, Professor Gabi Hegerl presented the keynote presentation on climate sensitivity. It was one of only four key science presentations given to directly communicate the report's findings to the full plenary session of government representatives. The Paris Agreement Our researchers have made vital contributions to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which was the scientific foundation for the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Paris Agreement is the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate change agreement, adopted at the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. It also aims to strengthen countries' ability to deal with climate change impacts and support them in their efforts. The Paris Agreement is a landmark for climate change. For the first time, a binding agreement brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. Implementation of the Paris Agreement requires economic and social transformation based on the best available science. Reducing warming to 1.5 degrees C Following the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requested advice from the IPCC to limit climate warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The IPCC aimed to assess the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Subsequent research by our School estimated the variation in the Earth's pre-industrial climate. We attributed observed variations in climate to radiative forcing, and estimated detectable greenhouse gas contributions to surface temperature from across the 19th century. This research is important because it is the baseline used by the IPCC to assess climate change stabilisation targets. Analysis of the pre-industrial climate led our researchers to conclude that correcting this baseline reduced the amount of warming in future by 0.2 degrees before the Paris Agreement targets are exceeded. In addition, this correction meant that there was a corresponding reduction of up to 40% in the remaining future budget for carbon dioxide emissions. The resulting 2018 landmark IPCC Special Report 'Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees C', was arguably one of the most important and influential reports in the IPCC's history. The IPCC cited work from our University researchers, including findings applied directly in calculating future emissions allowable without exceeding 1.5C warming. Working Group I: the physical science basis This Working Group assesses the physical scientific basis of the climate system and climate change. Professor Gabi Hegerl was selected as: Draft Contributing Author (Summary) Lead Author for 'Chapter 10: Detection and attribution of climate change from global to regional' Contributing Author for 'Chapter 12: Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility' Expert Reviewer Professor David Stevenson was selected as: Contributing Author for ‘Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing’ Contributing Author for ‘Chapter 11: Near-term climate change: projections and predictability’ Contributor to ‘Annex II: Climate system scenario tables’ Expert Reviewer Dr Andrew Schurer was selected as Contributing Author for 'Chapter 10: Detection and attribution of climate change from global to regional' Dr Peter Alexander was selected as Contributing Author Professor Ruth Doherty was selected as Expert Reviewer Dr Massimo Bollasina was selected as Expert Reviewer Professor Richard Essery was selected as Expert Reviewer Professor Dave Reay was selected as a Expert Reviewer Our research The IPCC recognised and cited the work by our researchers throughout this report. You can find out more about their research under each of their profiles below: Professor Gabi Hegerl Professor David Stevenson Dr Andrew Schurer Professor Ruth Doherty Dr Massimo Bollasina Professor Richard Essery Professor Simon Tett Dr Daniel Goldberg Professor Peter Nienow Professor Rob Bingham Professor Paul Palmer Professor Alexander Tudhope Professor Dave Reay Working Group II: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability This Working Group assesses the impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of socio-economic and natural systems related to climate change. Professor Mark Rounsevell was selected as Lead Author Dr Meriwether Wilson was selected as Contributing Author for 'Chapter 23: Europe' Professor Marc J Metzger was selected as Contributing Author for 'Chapter 23: Europe' Professor Murray Roberts was selected as: Contributing Author for 'Chapter 6: Ocean Systems' Expert Reviewer Our research The IPCC recognised and cited the work by our researchers throughout this report. You can find out more about their research under each of their profiles below: Professor Mark Rounsevell Professor Marc J Metzger Dr Meriwether Wilson Professor Murray Roberts Professor Andrew Dugmore Dr Isla Myers-Smith Professor Dave Reay Professor Alexander Tudhope Dr James Paterson Professor Jaboury Ghazoul Professor Edward Mitchard Professor Dan van der Horst Dr Saran Sohi Professor Simon Tett Professor Gabi Hegerl Dr Simon Shackley Professor Paul Palmer Professor Ruth Doherty Professor David Stevenson Working Group III: mitigation Working Group III assesses all relevant options for mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and taking actions to remove them from the atmosphere Dr Saran Sohi was selected as Contributing Author for 'Chapter 11: Agriculture, Forestry and other land use.' The IPCC recognised and cited the work by our researchers throughout this report. You can find out more about their research under each of their profiles below: Dr Saran Sohi Dr Simon Shackley Professor Stuart Haszeldine Dr Stuart Gilfillan Professor Jaboury Ghazoul Professor Gabi Hegerl Professor Dave Reay Professor Paul Palmer Professor David Stevenson Professor Edward Mitchard Professor Dan van der Horst Professor Rachel Wood Dr Vivian Scott The latest reports Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) In August 2021, the IPCC published the first instalment, 'The Physical Science Basis', of its long-awaited Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). It is eight years since the IPCC's fifth assessment of climate science (AR5). Therefore the new report benefits from almost a decade of work of additional research, observations and technological progress. We've provided highlights on the latest report: Starkest warning yet - what our research and latest IPCC (AR6) report reveals Special Reports Between the Assessment Reports, the IPCC also publishes Special Reports which focus on a specific issue. Since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC has produced three Special Reports: Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees C (2018) Climate Change and Land (2019) Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019 We are among the world-leading researchers who have made crucial contributions to the IPCC's Special Reports, guiding policies around the globe. For example, the 2018 landmark IPCC Special Report 'Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees C', was arguably one of the most important and influential reports in the IPCC's history. The IPCC cited work from our University researchers, including findings applied directly in calculating future emissions allowable without exceeding 1.5C warming. We've provided highlights on the Special Reports: IPCC Special Reports Want to know more? We've provided some useful links for you. To see the information, simply click on each heading below: What is the IPCC, and how has our research helped? We've provided more information on our work and the role of the IPCC: Starkest warning yet – what our research and the latest IPCC (AR6) report reveals What are we doing about climate change? Our impact on IPCC What is the IPCC? And why should we trust it? IPCC Special Reports Considering studying with us? Image Making a difference starts here, with our diverse undergraduate, postgraduate and research degree programmes. Study with us, and join one of the largest and most successful groupings of geographers and geoscientists in the UK as we address the most compelling issues of our time. You will also become part of one of the top universities in the world. We’re 16th in the most recent QS World University Rankings. Check out our degrees and help us change the world. Explore our degrees Research institutes, groups and networks Research institutes Our research is carried out across our three interdisciplinary research institutes. There are also a number of research groups within each institute. Due to the interdisciplinary nature of our research, academic staff may belong to one or more groups across the institutes. Each of the following research institutes is a major centre of expertise: Global Change Institute Geography and the Lived Environment Institute Earth and Planetary Science Institute Our School also runs the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute (ECCI) and the Centre for Sustainable Forests and Landscapes Visit their websites: Edinburgh Climate Change Institute (ECCI) Centre for Sustainable Forests and Landscapes External centres and networks Our research enables people from different institutes within the School, other departments within the University as well as external partners and organisations to work together to address local and global challenges. External centres and networks This article was published on 2024-07-01
