Numerical-modelling of ice-sheet and glacier melting

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New computer modelling techniques

The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) is an institute of the Natural Environment Research Council NERC).  It delivers and enables world-leading interdisciplinary research in the Polar Regions. BAS is the focal point for UK Antarctic research and operations. International collaboration and co-operation are essential to achieve a co-ordinated research effort.

The BAS included a GBP2,4000,000 funded numerical-modelling programme dedicated to greatly improved predictions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's fate and its contribution to global sea-level rise over the next 200 years. 

This programme has been underpinned by geophysical measurements of the shape and condition of Antarctica's ice-sheet bed, led by our researchers who acquired and processed data into subglacial topographic maps. Numerical-modelling equations and strategies developed at our University have contributed to greatly reduced uncertainties in the BAS programme for numerically modelling the future of the ice sheets. 

Climate change policies

National and international policies, including the UK national policy on mitigating sea-level rise is informed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  The IPCC Reports are the formal scientific input to the decision-making processes of international climate change negotiations and agreements, including the United Nations Paris Agreement. 

In turn, the IPCC is informed by major national programmes such as the British Antarctic Survey.

BAS contributions to IPCC have been underpinned by our researchers' work.  Our field data acquired from the deep interior of Antarctica have been critical to constraining British Antarctic Survey models of future ice retreat from Antarctica and its consequent contributions to global sea-level rise. Numerical modelling strategies developed by our scientists have also informed us about the impact of oceans on the flow and retreat of ice around West Antarctica and Greenland and have also demonstrated the important role that climate variability plays in the ice-ocean system.

For example, the 2019 IPCC Special Report 'Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate' cited numerous papers by our researchers. These regions were highlighted in the Summary for Policymakers as key sources of future sea-level rise.  In addition, the numerical tools developed for the studies have proven key components of wider community efforts to project West Antarctica's future.

Recently, our work with the BAS has supported the sea-level rise assessments for the IPCC 6th assessment reports and used as the primary evidence bases for global policymakers in planning sea-level defences.  

You can find out more about the British Antarctic Survey on their website.

British Antarctic Survey website 

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing climate change.

Every five to seven years, the IPCC produces Assessment Reports.  These are the most comprehensive scientific reports about climate change produced worldwide.  Between the Assessment Reports, the IPCC also publishes Special Reports which focus on a specific issue.

The IPCC is now producing the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) with contributions by its three Working Groups.   The first instalment of the report by Working Group I (WGI) – the Physical Science Basis was released in August 2021. 

Our contributions to the reports

Our research has made significant contributions to the IPCC Assessment Reports and the Special Reports, guiding policies around the world.

Our new computer modelling techniques have helped determine oceans' impact on the flow and retreat of ice around West Antarctica and Greenland. As a result, our equations have greatly improved predictions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's fate and its contribution to global sea-level rise over the next 200 years.

Find out more:

University impact

You can also read related stories on the University Impact website:

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Our researchers have also been recently working through the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration. 

The largest Earth science funding agencies in the United Kingdom and the United States are collaborating to investigate one of the most unstable glaciers in Antarctica. The US National Science Foundation (NSF) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) are teaming up to study a rapidly changing glacier roughly the same size as Florida or Britain.

The NERC and NSF partnership, called the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), covers research across Thwaites Glacier and its adjacent ocean region; the glacier flows into Pine Island Bay, part of the Amundsen Sea. ITGC is the largest joint UK-US project undertaken on the southern continent in 70 years.

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration is also informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.  

You can find out more about the collaboration on the ITGC website.

International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration website

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We are also conducting world-leading research that has improved the spatial and temporal resolution for satellite monitoring of changing ice sheets and glaciers.   Satellite observations gathered over glaciers worldwide have been critical to substantially improving estimates of the rates of ice loss and quantifying their contribution to sea-level rise.

We developed new data analytic methods from satellite observations, providing greater insight into terrains. We can also better pinpoint where the ocean is eroding ice under the melting Antarctic ice shelves.

For example, our work with organisations such as the European Space Agency has shown that Greenland today is losing ice seven times faster than two decades ago. 

You can read about our work with the European Space Agency within the pages of this website.

Satellite observations of ice-sheet and glacier melting